The Indiana State Sycamores (13-5) will visit the Missouri State Bears (8-9) on Sunday. Indiana State has been streaky this season, with three separate four-game winning streaks and one three-game slide. They fell to Southern Illinois in their last game, 69-61. Missouri State has lost two in a row by a combined 23 points. The Bears are going through a rebuild this season, with six of their seven leading scorers from last year transferring or graduating.
Indiana State vs. Missouri State
Odds are courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook
Indiana State vs. Missouri State Match Details
Fixture: Indiana State Sycamores at Missouri State Bears
Date and Time: Sunday, January 15 at 3:00 PM ET
Venue: JQH Arena
ShotQuality Tale of the Tape
Below, we will highlight essential ShotQuality data for this matchup, including Adjusted Offensive and Defensive SQ, strengths, weaknesses, and frequency. SQppp is a player’s average ShotQuality points per possession.
Thus, SQppp = Total SQpoints/Total No. of Possessions.
The Indiana State Sycamores own a 1.00 AdjOFF SQ this season, good for 198th in the nation. Missouri State has the 96th-best AdjDEF SQ at 0.98. ISU does poorly in all key stats besides shot selection, where they are in the 95th percentile. They are also the best team in the country in the rim & three-rate stat. Conversely, the Bears are in the 35th percentile in defensive shot selection and 112th in the rim & three rate metric.
The Sycamores own high-frequency numbers in catch & shoot three-point, cut, finishing at the rim, off-screen, P&R ball screen, and transition shot types. They are in the top 125 in all those shot types except catch & shoot three-pointers, with a 0.98 SQ PPP (310th in the country) and cut, with a 1.10 SQ PPP (200th). Conversely, the Bears are in the bottom 175 in all those categories except in off-screen and transition, where they rank 68th and 86th in SQ PPP.
The Bears have a 1.04 AdjOFF SQ, the 111th-best mark in the country. ISU has posted a 1.00 AdjDEF SQ this season, clocking in at 150th in the country. The Bears are in the top 100 in shot selection and rim & three rate. The Sycamores are in the top 150 in defending those two essential categories.
Missouri State is in the country’s top half in frequency regarding the following shot types: catch & shoot three-pointers, finishing at the rim, half-court, isolation, and off-the-dribble three-pointers. On the other hand, ISU is in the top 50 in defending the perimeter and half-court but has struggled with the midrange.
Indiana State vs. Missouri State Prediction
ShotQuality has this matchup as a coin toss, just like Vegas. However, ISU is a much older and more experienced team that also lines up well against the Bears. Their defense should be able to cause problems for Missouri State, especially if they run them off the three-point line. It may be a back-and-forth, but ISU should be able to pull away late in the conference game.
Prediction: Indiana State +1.5 (-105)
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